I've put off posting this, because I am unsure of the judgement, but finally I said, what the heck, let's do it.
First, the horary chart:
1st house Greece, 7th house Spain. No planets in the aforementioned houses. The Moon may bodily be in the 1st, but it is conjunct the 2nd house cusp and following the 5 degree rule, I consider it a 2nd house planet.
1st house ruler Mercury, 7th house ruler Jupiter. They are both in succedent houses, which are neutral, and they are both retrograde. Not much strength for either of them. Jupiter is in the house of its joy, but not in the same sign as the cusp, making it a very minor testimony.
What REALLY stands out is Mercury's combustion. If it were any other sign (apart from Gemini), then this would be the easiest of judgements. Greece would be destined to lose the game. But here, Mercury is in the sign its rulership and exaltation and, as Frawley puts it, this is kind of like a mutual reception. Yes, combustion is harmful, but Mercury rules the Sun and somehow it manages to cancel out the combustion, or at least its most harmful effects. So, we must look further.
What is the Sun here? The Sun is ruler of the 4th house, "the end of matter", in this case the result. Normally, we wouldn't check this, but in this case I fear we must. What does it mean? The result "loves" Greece and Greece rules it and the aspect is applying, so the result is coming to Greece. I think combustion makes sense here, since Greece is hidden from sight in a way. They haven't shown their full potential and most people, I presume, expect Spain to win, including myself.
What does the event chart say? Since the game with Turkey took place at the same time, the planets haven't moved much since then.
What has changed however, is that Mars is no longer sitting on the cusp, but it is inside the 7th house. Which is very bad for the favourites, in this case Spain presumably. The Moon's role here is interesting. It is the 4th house ruler and normally we would give it to the underdogs, but Frawley advises us to not do that, but keep the Moon as the indicator of the flow of events. We must check the Moon's aspects up to approximately 5 degrees. The Moon's next aspect is a square to Mars, favouring Spain, but its final and DECISIVE aspect is the square to Greece. Unfortunately, this aspect occurs after a little more than 6 degrees. Do we take it into account? I hope so. This could mean that Spain is going to take the lead, but eventually Greece will catch up. The fact that it is beyond the 5 degree limit could mean that we could have some overtime. If that's the case, then Greece should win.
Overall judgement based on the two charts: If I had to make a judgement, although I would have preferred clearer charts, I would pronounce Greece the winner, against all odds, possibly at overtime.
Update: Wrong judgement. Spain won. Now, what was wrong about it? In the event chart, was it the North Node conjunct the 10th cusp, favouring Spain? Maybe, but that Mars placement inside the 7th cusp is a major testimony against Spain winning. That was the reason that I stretched the 5 degree limit for the Moon's aspects, giving the victory to Greece. Perhaps I shouldn't have done so. Or, as Frawley says, it's difficult to make a judgement when the Moon is one of the significators, even though he advises us to keep it as the indicator for the flow of events.
The horary chart? It seems that combustion is destructive even when the combust planet is in its own sign. Or at least, we need more positive testimonies if we are to judge in its favour. And perhaps Jupiter being in the house of its joy isn't so minor a testimony as I thought.
Update 7/3/2016: I no longer use this method and I don't judge charts when there are considerations against judgement present. Here we have the ascendant in early degrees and the combustion of the ascendant ruler.
First, the horary chart:
1st house Greece, 7th house Spain. No planets in the aforementioned houses. The Moon may bodily be in the 1st, but it is conjunct the 2nd house cusp and following the 5 degree rule, I consider it a 2nd house planet.
1st house ruler Mercury, 7th house ruler Jupiter. They are both in succedent houses, which are neutral, and they are both retrograde. Not much strength for either of them. Jupiter is in the house of its joy, but not in the same sign as the cusp, making it a very minor testimony.
What REALLY stands out is Mercury's combustion. If it were any other sign (apart from Gemini), then this would be the easiest of judgements. Greece would be destined to lose the game. But here, Mercury is in the sign its rulership and exaltation and, as Frawley puts it, this is kind of like a mutual reception. Yes, combustion is harmful, but Mercury rules the Sun and somehow it manages to cancel out the combustion, or at least its most harmful effects. So, we must look further.
What is the Sun here? The Sun is ruler of the 4th house, "the end of matter", in this case the result. Normally, we wouldn't check this, but in this case I fear we must. What does it mean? The result "loves" Greece and Greece rules it and the aspect is applying, so the result is coming to Greece. I think combustion makes sense here, since Greece is hidden from sight in a way. They haven't shown their full potential and most people, I presume, expect Spain to win, including myself.
What does the event chart say? Since the game with Turkey took place at the same time, the planets haven't moved much since then.
What has changed however, is that Mars is no longer sitting on the cusp, but it is inside the 7th house. Which is very bad for the favourites, in this case Spain presumably. The Moon's role here is interesting. It is the 4th house ruler and normally we would give it to the underdogs, but Frawley advises us to not do that, but keep the Moon as the indicator of the flow of events. We must check the Moon's aspects up to approximately 5 degrees. The Moon's next aspect is a square to Mars, favouring Spain, but its final and DECISIVE aspect is the square to Greece. Unfortunately, this aspect occurs after a little more than 6 degrees. Do we take it into account? I hope so. This could mean that Spain is going to take the lead, but eventually Greece will catch up. The fact that it is beyond the 5 degree limit could mean that we could have some overtime. If that's the case, then Greece should win.
Overall judgement based on the two charts: If I had to make a judgement, although I would have preferred clearer charts, I would pronounce Greece the winner, against all odds, possibly at overtime.
Update: Wrong judgement. Spain won. Now, what was wrong about it? In the event chart, was it the North Node conjunct the 10th cusp, favouring Spain? Maybe, but that Mars placement inside the 7th cusp is a major testimony against Spain winning. That was the reason that I stretched the 5 degree limit for the Moon's aspects, giving the victory to Greece. Perhaps I shouldn't have done so. Or, as Frawley says, it's difficult to make a judgement when the Moon is one of the significators, even though he advises us to keep it as the indicator for the flow of events.
The horary chart? It seems that combustion is destructive even when the combust planet is in its own sign. Or at least, we need more positive testimonies if we are to judge in its favour. And perhaps Jupiter being in the house of its joy isn't so minor a testimony as I thought.
Update 7/3/2016: I no longer use this method and I don't judge charts when there are considerations against judgement present. Here we have the ascendant in early degrees and the combustion of the ascendant ruler.
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